25. Robert L. Hirsch, project leader, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, U.S. Department of Energy, February 2005, 13, 23–25. A different and more official position was issued by the EIA in 2004–2005 in the form of a presentation on “When Will World Oil Production Peak” by EIA administrator Guy Caruso at the 10th Annual Oil and Gas Conference, Kuala Lumpar, Malaysia, June 13, 2005. The central scenario, however, estimated the world oil peak occurring in 2044, a figure too out of line with all other studies to be considered credible. See http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/Caruso061305.pdf.

26. Robert L. Hirsh, “The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production,” Bulletin of the Atlantic Council of the United States 16, no. 2 (October 2005): 8.

27. Daniel F. Fournier and Eileen T. Westervelt, U.S Army Engineer Research and Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Energy Trends and their Implications for U.S. Army Installations, September 2005, vii.

28. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2005 (Paris: OECD, 2005), 510-12; Simmons, Twilight in the Desert, 170–79; Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, 38.

29. United States Government Accountability Office, Crude Oil: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production, February 28, 2007, 4, 20–22, 35–38.

30. Bloomberg.com, “Goldman’s Murti Says Oil ‘Likely’ to Reach a $150–$200 (Update 5),” May 6, 2008; “The Cassandra of Oil Prices,” New York Times, May 21, 2008; ; Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, 121–22; Joroen van der Veer (interview), “Royal Dutch Shell CEO on the End of ‘Easy Oil’,”; “Not Enough Oil is Lament of BP, Exxon on Spending (Update 1),” Bloomberg.com, May 19, 2008; Mike Nizz, “Market Faces a Disturbing Oil Forecast,” The Lede (New York Times blog), May 22, 2008.

31. Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0 (New York: W. W. Norton, 2008), 41; Fred Magdoff, “The World Food Crisis,” Monthly Review 60, no. 1 (May 2008): 1–15, and “The Political Economy and Ecology of Agrofuels,” in this issue.

32. Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Al-Rodhan, The Changing Risks in Global Oil Supply and Demand, Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 3, 2005 (first working draft), 8, 13–19, 55–59, 79, 83.

33. John Deutsch and James R. Schlesinger, chairs, National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependence, Council on Foreign Relations, 2006, http://www.cfr.org/publication/11683/, 3, 16–30, 48–56.

34. James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University, “The Changing Role of National Oil Companies in International Oil Markets,” Baker Institute Policy Report, no. 35 (April 2007), http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/BI_PolicyReport_35.pdf, 1, 10–12, 17–19.

35. Kunstler, The Long Emergency, 76–84; Baker Institute, “Changing Role of National Oil Companies,” 12.

36. Roger Stern, “The Iranian Petroleum Crisis and the United States National Security,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, no. 1 (January 2, 2007): 377–82.

37. Foster, “A Warning to Africa”; Michael Watts, “The Empire of Oil: Capitalist Dispossession and the New Scramble for Africa,” Monthly Review 58, no. 4 (September 2006), 1–17; Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, 146–76.

38. “U.S. Military Sees Oil Nationalism Spectre,” Financial Times, June 26, 2006; Council on Foreign Relations, “The Return of Resource Nationalism,” August 13, 2007; Eva Golinger, Bush vs. Chávez (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2008).

39. Simmons, “An Oil Man Reconsiders the Future of Black Gold.”

40. Carlos Pascual, “The Geopolitics of Energy,” Brookings Institution, January 2008, http://www.cfr.org/publication/15342/brookings.html, 3–4.

41. Daniel Litvin, The Guardian (UK), “Oil, Gas and Imperialism,” January 4, 2006.

42. Joshua Kurlantzick, “Put a Tyrant in Your Tank,” Mother Jones 33, no. 3 (May–June 2008), 38–42, 88–89.

43. 见Richard Heinberg的《一切都是高价》Peak Everything (Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers, 2008), 141–57 之“Bridging Peak Oil and Climate Change Activism” 章. On the concept of a biospheric rift see Brett Clark and Richard York, “Carbon Metabolism: Global Capitalism, Climate Change, and the Biospheric Rift,” Theory & Society 34, no. 4 (2005): 391–428. In their paper on peak oil and global warming, Kharecha and Hansen present a baseline atmospheric carbon stabailizaton scenario in which oil-based CO2 emissions peak by 2016, due principally to the “peaking” of world oil production (mediated by economic and social as well as geological factors). If such a peak were to occur, they argue, it would facilitate the stabilization of atmospheric carbon at (or below) what scientists increasingly consider to be the maximum safe level of 450 parts per million (associated with a rise in global average temperature of around 2°C above pre-industrial). But stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at this level would also require that CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants peak by 2025 and that coal-fired plants without sequestration be phased out completely “before mid-century.” Pusher and Kharecha, “Implications of ‘Peak Oil’ for Atmospheric CO2 and Climate.”

44. Rachel Carson, Lost Woods (Boston: Beacon Press, 1998), 210.

马克思的当下意义：《大纲》写作150年后

The current importance of Marx, 150 years after the Grundrisse

人文与社会编辑小组译：http://humanities.cn

与埃里克·霍布斯鲍姆的谈话

埃里克·霍布斯鲍姆，马切罗·木斯托

By Eric Hobsbawm and Marcello Musto

埃里克·霍布斯鲍姆是最伟大的仍在世的历史学家之一。他是伦敦大学柏贝克学院的院长，纽约社会研究新学院的荣退教授。他著作很多，其中包括关于“漫长的十九世纪”的三部曲：1962年出版的《革命时代：1789－1848年的欧洲》，1975年出版的《资本时代：1848－1874》，1987年出版的《帝国时代：1875－1914》，以及1994年出版的《极端时代：短暂的20世纪，1914－1991》。

马切罗·木斯托是2008年出版的英译本《政治经济学批判大纲》（London-New York: Routledge 2008）的编辑。

1) 马切罗·木斯托：霍布斯鲍姆教授，1989年马克思被匆匆忘却，已经过去20年了，他又回到了聚光灯下。现在他已经不再被用作苏俄的统治工具，也摆脱了“马克思列宁主义”的禁锢。在最近几年中，通过他的著作出版新书，马克思不但引起了知识分子的关注，也成为更广泛关怀的目标。比如在2003年，法国的《新观察者》杂志出版了一期马克思特刊《卡尔·马克思：第三个千年的思想者？》一年后，德国电视台ZDF关于“古往今来谁是最有影响的德国人”的观众民意调查中，马克思得了50多万票，位列综合类第三，“当前影响”类第一。2005年，《镜报》有一期的封面是马克思，标题是《一个幽灵的回归》，而BBC广播4台“我们的时代”节目的听众则选出马克思为最伟大的哲学家。

在最近的一个与雅克·阿塔利的公开对话中，您说了一句充满吊诡的话：“比起别人来，正是资本家们一直在重新发现马克思。”您也谈到了当大商人和自由主义政客索罗斯对您说：“我刚正在读马克思，他说的话里有很多东西”的时候，您感到非常震撼。虽然这次回归还很微弱模糊，它的原因到底是什么？马克思的著作是否只对专家学者和知识分子有意义，只能在大学课堂中当作不应被遗忘的现代思想的经典？或者，一个新的“马克思需求”将来也会从政治的角度的产生？

埃里克·霍布斯鲍姆：在资本主义世界中，大众对马克思的兴趣无疑正在复苏，但在欧盟的东欧国家中，暂时还没有这种现象。可能由于《共产党宣言》出版150周年的同时，我们在超高速自由市场全球化过程中遇上了一次极为戏剧性的国际经济危机，这次复苏加速了。